Contract Risk Position
Six figures, and the two counts that qualify them.
| Largest owner-held risks | Bearer | Time | Direct $ | Time $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utility delay | Owner | 45 d | $0 | $810k |
| Permit delay | Owner | 30 d | $0 | $540k |
| Differing site conditions | Owner | 20 d | $1.20M | $360k |
Current risk position
GROSS EXPOSURE — three answers per party, never added together.
- Direct $
- $1.20M+2 GAP
- Time
- 95 days+1 GAP
- Time economics
- $1.71M
- Open items
- 5
- Direct $
- $2.45M
- Time
- 65 days
- Time economics
- GAP
- Open items
- 1
- Direct $
- $2.00M
- Time
- 17 days+1 GAP
- Time economics
- $144k
- Open items
- 3
Gross exposure, not expected loss. Overlapping events may not be additive.
Risk by bearer
How gross modeled risk is currently allocated.
Gross exposure, not expected loss. Overlapping events may not be additive.
Risk Ledger
Click a row to open its detail. Nine columns, no paragraphs.
| Risk | Clause | Trigger | Bearer | Time | Direct $ | Time $ | Status | Provenance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utility delay | §8.4 | Required utility service not available by contractual readiness date | Owner actor: utility | 45 d | $0 | $810k | NEGOTIATING | RECORD |
| Late completion | §9.2 | Substantial Completion not achieved by the Guaranteed date | Contractor | 30 d | $750k | — | EXECUTED | RECORD |
| Differing site conditions | §6.7 | Subsurface condition encountered that materially differs from the geotechnical report | Owner actor: none / site | 20 d | $1.20M | $360k | TRIGGERED | RECORD |
| Permit delay | §4.3 | Owner-obtained permit not issued by the date assumed in the baseline schedule | Owner actor: authority | 30 d | $0 | $540k | PROPOSED | RECORD reviewed |
| Material escalation | Ex. G | Indexed commodity price moves beyond the contractual band | Shared actor: market Escalation band ±5%, then shared 50/50 | GAP | $250k–$3.50M | — | NEGOTIATING | RECORD |
| Abnormal weather | §8.6 | Recorded precipitation or wind exceeds the ten-year monthly mean at the site | Shared actor: weather Contractor first 10 days, owner thereafter | 8–26 d | $0 | $144k | NEGOTIATING | RECORD |
| Force majeure | §16.1 | An event beyond the reasonable control of the affected party prevents performance | Shared actor: neither Each party bears its own cost; time relief only | GAP | $0 | — | IDENTIFIED | RECORD |
| Design error | §5.2 | Rework required because issued design does not meet the performance specification | Contractor | 14 d | $150k–$1.40M | — | EXECUTED | RECORD |
| Owner-directed change | §7.2 | Owner issues a written change directive | Owner | GAP | GAP | — | IDENTIFIED | RECORD |
| Testing failure | §11.4 | Reliability run fails to demonstrate the guaranteed performance ratio | Contractor | 21 d | $0–$2.80M | — | IDENTIFIED | RECORD |
| Interconnection upgrade cost | Sch. 4 | Network upgrade assignment issued by the transmission provider | Third party actor: transmission provider | 18 d | $0–$4.00M | — | IDENTIFIED | RECORD reviewed |
| Termination for convenience | §14.3 | Owner terminates without contractor default | Owner | GAP | GAP | — | IDENTIFIED | RECORD |
| Craft labor availability | §8.5 / Ex. C | Craft labor unavailable at the rates and headcount assumed in the baseline | Ambiguous actor: market | 25 d | $200k–$1.80M | — | NEGOTIATING | CONTRADICTION reviewed |
| Pre-existing environmental contamination | GAP | Pre-existing contamination discovered within the work area | Unallocated actor: unknown | GAP | GAP | — | IDENTIFIED | GAP suggested |
Risk position
The same three layers, read across the parties.
| Owner | Contractor | Shared | Third party | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct cost | $1.20M | $2.45M | $2.00M | $600k |
| Time | 95 d | 65 d | 17 d | 18 d |
| Time economics | $1.71M | GAP | $144k | GAP |
Gross individually modeled exposure. Do not interpret as a single probable loss scenario.
Scenario
Gross totals are not a scenario. Selecting a scenario sums only the selected events, so mutually exclusive risks are never added as one outcome.
Gross totals only. Nothing is selected, so nothing is summed as a single outcome.
| GROSS EXPOSURE | Direct $ | Days | Time $ |
|---|---|---|---|
| All risks, individually modeled | $1.20M | 95 | $1.71M |
Owner daily delay economics
The profile every modeled time exposure resolves through. It is not recorded historical cost, and it does not claim to be.
| Component | Per day | Treatment | Provenance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt interest | $11,800.00 / day | include | MODEL-DERIVED |
| Owner / consultant burn | $2,400.00 / day | include | MODEL-DERIVED |
| Land / tax / insurance | $900.00 / day | include | MODEL-DERIVED |
| Deferred operating margin | $2,000.00 / day | include | MODEL-DERIVED |
| Investor preferred return | $900.00 / day | include | MODEL-DERIVED |
| Equipment escalation on delay | GAP — closes on: closes on a quoted escalation schedule | gap | GAP |
| Modeled economic carry | GAP — one included component has no governed amount | GAP |
Closes on: file or govern Debt interest for this instrument; file or govern Owner / consultant burn for this instrument; file or govern Land / tax / insurance for this instrument; file or govern Deferred operating margin for this instrument; file or govern Investor preferred return for this instrument; file or govern Equipment escalation on delay for this instrument
Risk against the object graph
The same exposure, resolved onto the things it belongs to and the contract lines that price them. Objects are the project; the SOV is how the contract prices them.
| Object | Res. | Contract value | Bearer | Direct exposure | Days | Time economics | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustrative 150 MWac solar projectproject-wide · not summed with object rows | L0 | GAP | Contractor 1 · Shared 1 · Owner 2 | $750k | 30 | GAP | 4 |
| Racking and tracker | L2 | $41.00M | Shared 1 · Ambiguous 1 | $2.90M | 25 | GAP | 2 |
| PV modules | L2 | $148.50M | Shared 1 | $2.00M | GAP | GAP | 1 |
| Inverters and MV skids | L2 | $38.00M | Shared 1 | $2.00M | GAP | GAP | 1 |
| Interconnection and gen-tie | L2 | $8.90M | Owner 2 · Third party 1 | $600k | 93 | $1.35M | 3 |
| Substationmixed | L2 | $18.50M | Owner 1 · Contractor 1 | $410k | 75 | $1.34M | 2 |
| SCADA and controls | L2 | $3.10M | Contractor 1 | $1.10M | 21 | GAP | 1 |
| Commissioning and testing | L2 | $2.70M | Contractor 1 | $1.10M | 21 | GAP | 1 |
| Roads and site civilmixed | L2 | $6.40M | Owner 1 · Shared 1 · Unallocated 1 | $0 | 47 | $684k | 3 |
| Engineering management | L1 | $4.20M | Contractor 1 | $600k | 14 | GAP | 1 |
| 34.5 kV / 138 kV switchgear | L3 | $6.40M | Contractor 1 | $600k | 14 | GAP | 1 |
| Main power transformer T-01 | L4 | $5.20M | Contractor 1 | $410k | 30 | $531k | 1 |
| Collection system | L2 | $27.00M | Owner 1 · Ambiguous 1 · Unallocated 1 | $2.10M | 45 | $360k | 3 |
| Feeder B | L3 | $5.40M | Owner 1 | $1.20M | 20 | $360k | 1 |
| Feeder C | L3 | $5.20M | Owner 1 | $1.20M | 20 | $360k | 1 |
| Road crossing 07 | L4 | $310k | Owner 1 | $1.20M | 20 | $360k | 1 |
| Array foundations | L2 | $14.20M | Shared 1 · Ambiguous 1 | $900k | 42 | $144k | 2 |
Parent and child rows are not additive: a parent row's exposure is a rollup of the objects beneath it, and selecting one resolution level at a time is the only additive reading. A project-wide risk bears on the whole contract, not on one object. It is shown as its own row and never summed with object rows.
Gross modeled exposure; not expected loss. Illustrative object graph, not the filed record.
| Code | SOV line | Contract | Owner-held | Contractor-held | Ambiguous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1000 | Engineering management | $4.20M | GAP | $600k | GAP |
| 2100 | Roads and site civil | $6.40M | $360k | GAP | GAP |
| 2300 | Collection system | $27.00M | $360k | GAP | $900k |
| 3100 | Array foundations | $14.20M | GAP | GAP | $900k |
| 3400 | Racking and tracker | $41.00M | GAP | GAP | $900k |
| 3600 | PV modules | $148.50M | GAP | GAP | GAP |
| 4200 | Inverters and MV skids | $38.00M | GAP | GAP | GAP |
| 4600 | Substation | $18.50M | $810k | $1.13M | GAP |
| 4800 | Interconnection and gen-tie | $8.90M | $810k | GAP | GAP |
| 5200 | SCADA and controls | $3.10M | GAP | $1.10M | GAP |
| 6100 | Commissioning and testing | $2.70M | GAP | $1.10M | GAP |
| Object | Res. | Coarse / unresolved | Owner time economics | Owner direct | Detailed object mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustrative 150 MWac solar project | L0 | GAP | GAP | GAP | resolved |
| Engineering management | L1 | $4.20M | GAP | GAP | GAP — closes on the next issued design package |
| Roads and site civil | L2 | $6.09M | $540k | $0 | GAP — closes on the next issued design package |
| Collection system | L2 | $5.90M | $360k | $1.20M | GAP — closes on the next issued design package |
| Array foundations | L2 | $14.20M | GAP | GAP | GAP — closes on the next issued design package |
| Racking and tracker | L2 | $41.00M | GAP | GAP | GAP — closes on the next issued design package |
| PV modules | L2 | $148.50M | GAP | GAP | GAP — closes on the next issued design package |
| Inverters and MV skids | L2 | $38.00M | GAP | GAP | GAP — closes on the next issued design package |
| Substation | L2 | $0 | $810k | $0 | resolved |
| Interconnection and gen-tie | L2 | $8.90M | $1.35M | $0 | GAP — closes on the next issued design package |
| SCADA and controls | L2 | $3.10M | GAP | GAP | GAP — closes on the next issued design package |
| Commissioning and testing | L2 | $2.70M | GAP | GAP | GAP — closes on the next issued design package |
Coarse scope carrying material exposure. The detailed mapping is a GAP, and it is left as one rather than spread across the children.