epc-record

Developer economics

A derived view of the governed record, not a finance tab. Current price is the signed price plus executed price changes and nothing else; pending money is published separately as forecast exposure. Basis and the gross return proxy are computed from that chain plus the labeled model assumptions below. No figure here is an IRR.

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Reading the record…

Project geometry — the contamination boundary

Three modes, never collapsed. Record price on record geometry is RECORD-DERIVED. Record price on elected external geometry is COUNTERFACTUAL. The solar development model, whose geometry, acquisition, EPC $/Wac, PPA, capacity factor and change load all belong to one hypothetical project, is MODEL-DERIVED and lives in the sensitivity grid.

FieldAnswerProvenanceBasis / what closes it
Acres for this instrumentGAP — not established on the recordGAPCloses on: a governed project-geometry source establishing project acreage — project description, site exhibit, permit or other governed project document. A model assumption may fill this gap; it may never overwrite it.
MWac for this instrumentGAP — not established on the recordGAPCloses on: a governed project-geometry source establishing AC rating (MWac) — project description, site exhibit, permit or other governed project document. A model assumption may fill this gap; it may never overwrite it.
Unit-rate and basis figures below are published only under an election, and every one of them is labeled COUNTERFACTUAL — what this contract price would imply if it belonged to the selected geometry. That is not the solar development model, and the governed price chain is unaffected either way.

Model assumptions

Every input on this row is a MODEL ASSUMPTION at rung assumed. None of it moves a governed figure; the record is read-only here.

Modeled annual gross revenue: $15.713M — capacity factor and PPA are assumptions; the benchmark $/Wac anchor is 195,611,863 over 145 MWac = $1.3490/Wac, AC-denominated, turnkey scope less the owner-supplied transformer — Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association, Axial Basin Solar Turnkey EPC, SEC Exhibit 10.1, 2024-03-15.

The governed price chain

Quote → signed → executed changes → current. Pending change requests are held out of the current price by construction, and forecast exposure is labeled as forecast.

The solar development model — sensitivity grid, negotiated EPC × signed change load

MODEL-DERIVED, end to end. The solar development model — one coherent hypothetical project. Geometry, acquisition price, EPC $/Wac, PPA, capacity factor and change load all belong to that model and to no filed contract. No cell here is a governed figure and no cell is a counterfactual of any filed contract; the grid exists to price the negotiation and the administration of the model project.

Selected model cell — $1.35/Wac at 5.0% change load. MODEL-DERIVED: the model's own geometry, acquisition, PPA and capacity factor. Possibility space, not the record.

GAP — closes on: filed project geometry (acres and MWac). The record's position is not plotted: a $/Wac coordinate built on elected geometry is a COUNTERFACTUAL, and a counterfactual is never drawn as the record's reality.

Colour alone carries no status — every cell prints its value.